Titans 10-1 take on the 0-11 Lions
The Titans will be playing without the pressure of going undefeated so expect them to win big. The Titans win by double digits in 60 percent of simulations. Kerry Collins is averaging 1.3 TD passes and just 0.4 interceptions. Daunte Culpepper is averaging 0.8 TDs, but 1.6 INTs per sim. There is a 79 percent chance that Detroit turns the ball over at least twice compared to just 39 percent for Tennessee. To pull of the huge upset the Lions defense has to force at least 3 turnovers and hold Chris Johnson to under 75 yards. If they do this the Lions actually pull slightly ahead winning 50.7 percent of these simulations.
I think the Lions will keep it close. They Have been playing well, I just do not see them getting the win this week.
Dallas Host the Seattle Seahawks
The Cowboys are looking to close the season strong and they have a 56 percent chance of racking up another easy double digit win over an NFC West opponent. Tony Romo has a simulation passer rating over 100 with a 48 percent chance of passing for 250+ yards and 2+ TDs. Matt Hasselbeck has just a 71 rating in simulations with just a 12 percent chance of passing for 250 and 2 TDs. Even if Hasselbeck has a big game the Cowboys are still favored by 6 points winning 72 percent of these simulations because Julius Jones and Maurice Morris only average 3.5 ypc. Marion Barber is averaging 110 rushing yards per sim to give the Cowboys a balanced offensive attack.
Coboys should run away with this one. Unless Matt Haselback is done duing travel commercails and ready to play.
The Eagles host the Cardinals in the prime time game.
Donovan McNabb is going to start and he is forecasted to snap out of his funk against the below average Cardinals pass defense. In fact, while McNabb is not completing as high a percentage of passes as Kurt Warner, he actually is averaging a few more passing yards per sim. The Eagles pass rush is the key to the game. When the Eagles sack Kurt Warner no more than two times and Kurt Warner has no interceptions the Cardinals have a 52 percent chance of winning. When the Eagles sack Warner 3 or more times the Eagles have a 76 percent chance of winning with Kurt Warner averaging 1.6 turnovers
Eagles should have a shot here. Cardinals are bad traveling East, McNabb is know to play better after a conflict, and if they lose this one D-Mac is done.
So Expect
Titans Close
Dallas open up a can of kick ass
Eagles in a high scoring event.
Happy Thanksgiving. See you fridy with my Weekly picks.
