Week 12 Pick'em

Sorry Blogger fans I let you guys miss out on an easy pick'em last night. The Steelers where a shoe in with the low over under an easy pick to go high. Like the kid in the video I feel like I am on speed. Last week my pick'em pool I only lost 1out of 16  with one tie. My Blog picks where 3-0-1. leading to a 14-1-1 overall for the weekend. This week there are several harder picks. Contact me if you like to pick my brain about this weekends games.

Suicide Pick

The Raiders offense 'exploded' for 15 points last week and they are averaging just 15 again this week against the Broncos. JaMarcus Russell is doing a good job limiting interceptions with just a 35 percent of throwing 1 or more interceptions. However, there is only a 46 percent chance Russell has even 1 touchdown pass. Jay Cutler on the other hand is averaging 1.5 passing TDs per simulation with 40 percent chance of having at least 2 TD passes. When Cutler has multiple touchdown passes the Broncos increase their average margin of victory from 8 points per sim to 12 points per sim.

Numbers do not lie go With Denver

Easy Pick of the week.

To dad the teelers games was early, Let go deep and pick out the game of the week.

The Rams are breaking records for defensive futility. This week Chicago is getting excellent performances from Kyle Orton (nearly 2 to 1 TD to Interception ratio) and Matt Forte, who is forecasted for 120 yards on 25 carries. Forte is averaging more rushing yards per sim than the Rams top 3 rushers (Steve Jackson out). The Rams only have a 39 percent chance of holding Forte to under 100 yards, but if they do this they actually win 52 percent of the Custom Game Simulations. Marc Bulger is no longer a threat to carry the team offensively. He only passes for over 200 yards in 34 percent of simulations. Even if he does this, the Rams only win 29 percent of the time.

The Bears pile on the weaken rams team.

The most needed pick of the week.

The reeling Bills are favored this week, but not if Trent Edwards cannot keep his interceptions to no more than 1. In Custom Game Simulations where Trent Edwards has 2 or more interceptions, the Bills have just a 32 percent chance of winning. The Chiefs hope that Larry Johnson has another strong game. There is a 44 percent chance that Johnson has at least 75 rushing yards with 1+ touchdowns and if he does this the Chiefs actually win 67 percent of simulations. However, if Johnson is held to under 75 rushing yards the Chiefs chances drop from 47 percent for all simulations down to just 23 percent.

The Bills Need this game, So I take Buffalo

Upset Specail

The Chargers are desperate for a win. The Colts run defense is struggling and LT is forecasted to finally break out for a big game. There is a 50 percent chance LT has 100+ rushing yards and 1+ rushing touchdowns. If he can do this the Chargers have a 78 percent chance. However, the Custom Game Simulations also indicate that if LT has under 100 rushing yards the Colts become the favorite winning 58 percent of these simulations by an average score of 23-21. The Chargers defense needs to force a few turnovers. If Peyton Manning has no interceptions the Colts get a slight 51 percent edge.

The Colts with the Upset.