The best play of the week. The flea flicker from Chad Penndington to Ted Ginn Jr. was amazing.
Now on to the Picks.
Suicicde Pick.
The Eagles are a heavy road favorite winning over 70 percent of simulations over the Bengals. Donovan McNabb is forecasted for an excellent game with a 54 percent chance of having at least 2 TD passes and a 47 percent chance of having no interceptions. The best chance for the Bengals to pull off the upset is if Ryan Fitzpatrick has no interceptions and Cedric Benson rushing for 75+ yards.
Eagles Flying High.
Ok Lets recap the Sucide picks so far.
Jets/Giants/Seahawks/Bills/Panthers/Vikings/Steelers/Redskins/Bears/Cardinals/Eagles
Easy Pick'em
The Colts defense did a great job picking of Ben Roethlisberger multiple times and they have a 60 percent chance of forcing at least 3 Houston turnovers. This is largely due to Sage Rosenfels averaging over 2 interceptions per simulation. The only chance Houston has of winning is if he throws no more than 1 interception and RB Steve Slaton can have over 75 rushing yards.
Colts with the safe bet.
Game of the week.
Assuming Kyle Orton can play the Bears keep this game close with over 25 percent of simulations coming down to a field goal difference. The Packers have a very good secondary and Orton only has a 25 percent chance of having 2 or more passing touchdowns. Orton is doing a good job throwing no interceptions in 38 percent of simulations. When Orton commits no turnovers the Bears win 53 percent of
Packers with the Close Win
Upset specail
Jay Cutler and Matt Ryan are forecasted to have a shootout with Cutler getting the edge in yards but Ryan having the edge in completion percentage. Both average 1.6 passing TDs, but Ryan is averaging half as many interceptions as Jay Cutler. Atlanta is forecasted for a big advantage in the running game with Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood combining for over 140 yards compared to just 75 for Denver RBs. With a bad defense and battered running game the Broncos need a huge game from Jay Cutler. In the Custom Game Simulator if Cutler has 300+ yards, 2+ TD passes and no more than 1 interception the game is a virtual tie with Denver winning 49 percent.
Broncos get the win
Comments
Vet, that's a lot of statistical analysis...wouldn't it be easier to ask my crystal ball? I like all 3 of your picks. The only one I see different is the Chicago @ Green Bay game. Even though the Packers are at home, I like the Bears to squeak it out. Peace!
My picks are up: www.utopia1dc.blogspot.com